Call Me Stormy

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Global Shutdown Likely Soon

Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity says don’t be surprised if a global shutdown occurs soon. The reason: The coronavirus appears much more contagious than past virus outbreaks. The first comprehensive study of the virus has come out of China, completed by a large number of the nation’s leading virologists from institutes, think tanks and universities. There were even a couple of scientists from Hong Kong who took part.

What they found is startling? This is a supervirus, one that could have an R 0 of 4.08. R0 is a way to gauge contagious infections. It’s a basic reproduction number. Least contagious diseases, like hepatitis or the common cold, have a low R0 rate. The most contagious diseases, like measles, have an R0 rate as high as 18. A rate of 4.08 is somewhere in the middle, but still higher than AIDS or SARS, so it means coronavirus will spread quite quickly.

It’s spread is going to be so fast it can’t be stopped unless people are placed in quarantine-like situations. For how long? This is not clear yet. Could be as low as two weeks. Or be as long as two months. During that time, people would be confined to their homes, with only a few “essential” individuals, say military officers, the police, firefighters, doctors or utility workers, allowed to go to work.

Look for the quarantines existing across China to be duplicated elsewhere, starting first with other nations that are bearing the brunt of the disease — like Hong Kong, Japan and Thailand. How long will the United States wait to go this route? Good question and something we can’t answer yet. But more likely sooner, than later. The reason for that is simple: As more people become infected, it becomes much more difficult to stop the spread of the virus.

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