Call Me Stormy

Finding righteous currents in turbulent times

Archive for the tag “oil trade”

We Have No War And No Peace

The war with Iran has settled into a dangerous pattern of strikes, retaliation and stalled negotiations. Iran appears to be using talks to buy time while continuing to threaten the Gulf, tankers and the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States has already damaged major parts of Iran’s military and political structure, but the conflict will continue unless Iran loses the ability to keep attacking its neighbors and disrupting global shipping. The path forward is to raise the cost on Iran’s military infrastructure, weaken its ability to strike and create the conditions for most American forces to come home.

With oil prices stabilizing, regional allies capable of helping keep the strait open and the midterms approaching, the question is whether Trump can end the conflict decisively and shift attention back to the economy and the political fights at home. Here’s more from Victor Davis Hanson.

Has Iran Overplayed Its Hand?

Has Iran overplayed its hand with its hardball ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan, stalling a settlement of the Iran War and delaying a smooth reopening of the Strait of Hormuz?

The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more global oil traffic is shifting. Here, we see global maps showing the newly emerging trade patterns. Two key, primary routes are now in play: More ships are traveling through the Red Sea and entering the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal. And more ships are traveling to Texas and Louisiana to pick up oil in the Gulf of America (formerly Gulf of Mexico).

So it looks as if the Middle Eastern oil nations, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have turned away from the Strait of Hormuz, and are using the Suez Canal to reach Europe. Meanwhile, ships in the Western Hemisphere, as well as more Asian ships, are now traversing the Gulf of America, tapping into American, Mexican and Venezuelan oil.

The longer Iran delays a ceasefire settlement, the higher the likelihood that Iran will become irrelevant. Iran could be left to face more chronic and potentially catastrophic economic collapse. Here’s more from Langley Outdoors Academy.

 

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